2018/19 Reports

Others can be found in my Linked-In proile, below.

UN Sanctions Continue to Devastate North Korean Trade (docx)

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North Korea's Money Problem: Lessons from South Korea and China (Power Point) (pdf)

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January 9, Pegged won wiggles, doesn't break, yet (docx)

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Long Hot Summer (Sep 2018) (pdf)

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Kim's Plan B (July 2018) (pdf)

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Cheeseburger Summit (March 2018) (pdf)

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Sanctions and Nuclear Weapons are Changing North Korea (Nov 17) (pdf)

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North Korea's Shackled Economy (Mar '18) (docx)

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Hold your dollars; the right, and wrong ways to engage North Korea. (June 2018) (pdf)

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Confusing Electric Power Currents May Suggest Major Economic Change (pdf)

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Georgetown Luncheon Presentation, Hold Your Dollars! (pptx)

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AP Nov 2018 (docx)

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RMB Peg? (docx)

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A bit of history

This is a declassified National Intelligence Estimate of 1961 looking at the prospects for North and South Korea. Its amazing how wrong it turned out to be. North Korea was prospering and strong and South Korea was failing  in every way,  ready to be absorbed into the communist orbit.  Time was on the side of Pyongyang. I don't fault the authors; the facts pointed them in that direction albeit it with a poor understanding of the North's command economy system. And perhaps their warnings helped put in place new economic  policies that dramatically improved the lot of South Korea. One could redraft this estimate today, and switch North and South, and it could look pretty accurate, the South dominant and the North failing. Of course now, as then, we might be completely wrong.