Northeast Asia Economics and Intelligence Advisory, LLC

Economic change in North and South Korea, and China

Economic change in North and South Korea, and ChinaEconomic change in North and South Korea, and ChinaEconomic change in North and South Korea, and China

Economic change in North and South Korea, and China

Economic change in North and South Korea, and ChinaEconomic change in North and South Korea, and ChinaEconomic change in North and South Korea, and China
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New Downloads

CSIS December 1,2020 web (pptx)

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Pandemic Implications for NK Economy, Nov. 16,2020,GWIKs Lecture (pptx)

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UCSD Lecture Nov 9, 2020 (pptx)

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North Korea Hits Bottom, Decision Time for the Young Chairman (pdf)

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North Korea and its Money, October 2019 (docx)

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Update on North Korean Economy Under Sanctions: GW Lecture November 2019 (pdf)

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3 Feb 2020: Kim's Christmas Surprise: More dollars than sense (update) (pdf)

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NK China Trade Feb 2020 (docx)

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2018/19/20 Reports

Others can be found in my Linked-In proile, below.

UN Sanctions Continue to Devastate North Korean Trade (docx)Download
North Korea's Money Problem: Lessons from South Korea and China (Power Point) (pdf)Download
January 9, Pegged won wiggles, doesn't break, yet (docx)Download
Long Hot Summer (Sep 2018) (pdf)Download
Kim's Plan B (July 2018) (pdf)Download
Cheeseburger Summit (March 2018) (pdf)Download
Sanctions and Nuclear Weapons are Changing North Korea (Nov 17) (pdf)Download
North Korea's Shackled Economy (Mar '18) (docx)Download
Hold your dollars; the right, and wrong ways to engage North Korea. (June 2018) (pdf)Download
Confusing Electric Power Currents May Suggest Major Economic Change (pdf)Download
Georgetown Luncheon Presentation, Hold Your Dollars! (pptx)Download
AP Nov 2018 (docx)Download
RMB Peg? (docx)Download
Is Tight Money and Sanctions Driving North Korea into Depression? (pdf)Download
GW Lecture Nov 2019 Update on North Korean Economy amid Sanctions (pptx)Download

2018/19 Reports

Others can be found in my Linked-In proile, below.

UN Sanctions Continue to Devastate North Korean Trade (docx)Download
North Korea's Money Problem: Lessons from South Korea and China (Power Point) (pdf)Download
January 9, Pegged won wiggles, doesn't break, yet (docx)Download
Long Hot Summer (Sep 2018) (pdf)Download
Kim's Plan B (July 2018) (pdf)Download
Cheeseburger Summit (March 2018) (pdf)Download
Sanctions and Nuclear Weapons are Changing North Korea (Nov 17) (pdf)Download
North Korea's Shackled Economy (Mar '18) (docx)Download
Hold your dollars; the right, and wrong ways to engage North Korea. (June 2018) (pdf)Download
Confusing Electric Power Currents May Suggest Major Economic Change (pdf)Download
Georgetown Luncheon Presentation, Hold Your Dollars! (pptx)Download
AP Nov 2018 (docx)Download
RMB Peg? (docx)Download
Is Tight Money and Sanctions Driving North Korea into Depression? (pdf)Download
GW Lecture Nov 2019 Update on North Korean Economy amid Sanctions (pptx)Download

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A bit of history

This is a declassified National Intelligence Estimate of 1961 looking at the prospects for North and South Korea. Its amazing how wrong it turned out to be. North Korea was prospering and strong and South Korea was failing  in every way,  ready to be absorbed into the communist orbit.  Time was on the side of Pyongyang. I don't fault the authors; the facts pointed them in that direction albeit it with a poor understanding of the North's command economy system. And perhaps their warnings helped put in place new economic  policies that dramatically improved the lot of South Korea. One could redraft this estimate today, and switch North and South, and it could look pretty accurate, the South dominant and the North failing. Of course now, as then, we might be completely wrong.

Korea NIE 1961 (pdf)Download
Commemorating an Unfinished War (2000 but, unfortunately, still relevant). (pdf)Download
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